Today marks the first trading day of October and the Greenback is struggling vs the majors. For the EUR/USD, rates are up a modest 22 pips as Brexit is once again dominating the Eurozone news cycle. Given Brexit, the U.S. election, and COVID-19 fallout, market uncertainty is at an all-time high. For now, it looks like forex players are content limiting exposure to the USD.
This morning’s U.S. economic calendar has been jam-packed with market-moving events. Here are the highlights:
Event Actual Projected Previous
Continuing Jobless Claims (Sept. 18) 11.767M 12.225M 12.747M
Initial Jobless Claims (Sept. 25) 837K 850K 873K
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept.) 55.4 56.3 56.0
Simply put, these figures suggest that the economy continues on its path to recovery. Americans are going back to work and manufacturing is in positive territory. So, how fast can U.S. economic output return to pre-COVID-19 levels? For now, the answer to that question remains to be seen.
Summer 2020 brought a weak dollar and spike in the EUR/USD. At press time, rates remain in long-term bullish territory and October is positioned to retest the 1.2000 level.
EUR/USD Holds Firmly In Bullish Territory
The EUR/USD weekly chart below gives us a good look at the prevailing uptrend. Rates are well above the 38% Retracement Level (1.1485) and Weekly SMA (1.1712). Both suggest bullish sentiment continues to dominate this market.
Here are the levels to watch going into Friday’s session:
- Resistance(1): Yearly High, 1.2010
- Support(1): Weekly SMA, 1.1712
- Support(2): 38% Retracement, 1.1485
Bottom Line: If we see the EUR/USD pullback ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, a long trade opportunity may come into play. Until then, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from 1.1713. With an initial stop loss at 1.1693, this trade produces 20 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.